James Conner and Cordarrelle Patterson outlooks, some hope for the Colts and more Week 9 fantasy obs

This series answers one question for each team following the Week 9 games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). It uses advanced metrics, analytics, game tape reviews, statistical trends, and myriad other elements. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.

The EPA metrics detailed below are per TruMedia. Other advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in full PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

(Note: The app’s dark display theme can interfere with how the tables in this article look. If you’re on the app, please switch to light mode by tapping on the Aa button at the top to properly view it.)

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Is it time to drop Eno Benjamin?

Benjamin didn’t do much prior to James Conner’s Week 5 injury, but he posted 14.3 points in that game and then followed it up with 41.3 points over the next three weeks.

That scoring pace made it possible for Benjamin to continue to post solid numbers now that Conner has returned, but the Week 9 snap counts indicate otherwise.

Conner dominated the passing snaps and still had a more than 2-to-1 lead in rush snaps over Benjamin. That led to a season low 3.7 points for Benjamin and portends poorly for his role going forward. That factor makes him a strong drop candidate in shallow leagues and a potential drop candidate in deeper leagues.

Does this backfield have enough carries for both Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier?

Patterson returned to the lineup in Week 9 after missing four games with a knee injury, so there was a question mark about what his workload level would be in his first game back. Here is how the Falcons’ running back snaps looked in Week 9.

This shows Atlanta wanted to split the rush snaps between Patterson, Allgeier, and Huntley (Smith is a blocking fullback) and it resulted in 13 carries for Patterson, 10 carries for Allgeier, and seven carries for Huntley.

Patterson’s career high for carries in a season is the 153 he posted last year. Pro-rate his current pace out and it equals 164 carries, which may be the ceiling that Atlanta wants to use for Patterson given his durability question mark. That means the Falcons may go with a similar workload approach from here on out, so fantasy managers should keep Allgeier on most rosters and Huntley on very deep rosters.

Will be updated following the Monday night game.

When will fantasy managers be able to trust Gabe Davis in lineups again?

To find out what has happened to Davis’ production, one needs look no further than his production on stretch vertical passes (aerials traveling 20+ yards downfield).

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Here is how his numbers on those throws compared to Stefon Diggs in Weeks 5 and 6, games where Davis tallied a total of 48.5 points:

• Diggs: 12 routes, three targets, two receptions, 61 yards
• Davis: 14 routes, six targets, three receptions, 194 yards, three touchdowns

Now contrast that to the stretch vertical numbers in Weeks 8 and 9:

• Diggs: 11 routes, seven targets, three receptions, 121 yards, one touchdown
• Davis: 13 routes, three targets, zero receptions

They are both running the same volume of routes, but the target volume, receptions, and yards have flipped in favor of Diggs.

Since Davis has only 12 targets, four receptions, and 29 receiving yards on short passes in the entire 2022 season, this suggests that teams realized he wasn’t going to do anything on dink and dunk throws and decided to solely concentrate on taking his long pass targets away. That has opened things up for Diggs, but since Buffalo has posted two of its three lowest passing yardage totals this season over the past two weeks, it’s a defensive game plan that is likely to be replicated quite often.

The caveat here is that Davis has four green-rated cornerback matchups for the rest of the fantasy regular season. That means there is a matchup upside path for him, but his fantasy managers should also realize that there will continue to be many low floor days for Davis this year.

Does one bad game knock D’Onta Foreman out of strong status?

As noted in last week’s edition of this article series, the 26 carries Foreman racked up in Week 8 was only the fourth time in six NFL seasons that he has posted 20+ carries in a game and only the 13th time he had ever posted 10+ carries. That suggested the Panthers coaches might want to manage his work volume and indicated Foreman was not likely to be a weekly RB1/RB2 candidate.

Carolina’s running back snap counts in Week 9 indicate that is exactly what happened.

To be fair, Blackshear got many of his carries due in part to this game being a blowout in favor of the Bengals, but Foreman only had a 4-to-2 rush snap advantage over Blackshear in the first half, so keeping a cap on Foreman’s carry volume looked to be on the minds of the Carolina coaches all game long.

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It’s just another piece of evidence indicating that Foreman should largely be considered a flex candidate even if Chuba Hubbard isn’t able to return in time for this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup against Atlanta.

Is it time to bench David Montgomery?

The scrimmage play volume hasn’t been a problem for Montgomery, as even with Khalil Herbert taking some of the carries and receptions, Montgomery has 15+ touches in five straight games.

The problem is goal line carries (measured as rush attempts at or inside the 5-yard line). Montgomery had two of those in Week 7 and scored a touchdown on one, which is why he ended up with a solid 12.2-point day against New England. In the past two weeks, the Bears have only had one goal line carry and that went to Justin Fields.

Since the goal line carries have been a lack of team opportunity rather than a conscious effort to move those carries away from Montgomery, it’s not time to bench him, as the lead back in an offense that is finding its groove the way Chicago’s has of late is someone fantasy managers will want in lineups.

Cincinnati Bengals

Should Hayden Hurst be rostered in more leagues?

To get an idea of just how thin the tight end position is in fantasy football, consider that since Week 4, the 12th ranked tight end, who would be the lowest rated starter in a 12-team league if that league had perfect distribution of fantasy production, has averaged 9.4 points (Robert Tonyan).

Hurst isn’t crushing that figure, but in that same time frame, he has posted 10.3 points per game, a mark that ranks 11th. A player of that caliber should really be rostered in most than 59.3 percent of leagues, especially since there will be four-team bye weeks in each of the next two weeks.

Team on a bye this week.

Team on a bye this week.

Team on a bye this week.

What did D’Andre Swift’s snap count tell fantasy managers about his start value?

When Swift tallied only 10 scrimmage plays last week, his fantasy managers could take solace in that it was likely just the Lions coaches easing him back into the lineup after being out for a month.

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The Week 9 snap counts for the Lions running backs take much of that solace away.

Swift added a shoulder ailment to his ankle woes on the injury report last week and that combination made him rank third in offensive snaps and last in rushing snaps. He was a pass catching back in this game and a marginally utilized one at that.

It is entirely possible that Swift will be back to full speed soon enough, but the reality is his fantasy managers should pay a lot of attention to the injury reports to see how he is faring there, as his workload may continue to be capped as long as his health is less than 100 percent.

Is it time to bench or drop AJ Dillon?

This is the question that never seems to end for Dillon’s fantasy managers, as he ranks 49th in RB points per game since Week 2. That should make him an easy bench or drop candidate, but those managers see Dillon’s strong workload (23rd in RB scrimmage plays per game since Week 2) and are tempted to put him into lineups in the hope that the work results in touchdowns.

If those managers need a statistical justification to keep Dillon out of starting lineups, try this on for size. Since Week 5 the Packers rank 30th in percentage of red zone drives that result in touchdowns (36.4 percent) and are easily last in percentage of red zone rushing plays in that same span.

This means Green Bay can’t find the end zone and they aren’t trusting their running backs to help with that effort. Unless or until that changes, keep Dillon out of starting lineups. He can be dropped in shallow leagues but should kept on rosters in leagues with a solid bench size, as it will be difficult to find worthy replacement players for him.

How should fantasy managers deal with the Brandin Cooks situation?

Cooks missed the Thursday night game against Philadelphia in part due to a wrist injury, but also due to a personal reason that was reportedly his being unhappy with not being dealt at the trade deadline.

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Being unhappy seems to be par for the course for Cooks, as the Saints, Patriots, and Rams all parted ways with him even after he posted quality numbers for each of those clubs.

The Texans have shown very consistent effort levels under Lovie Smith in part because he has the players’ respect, and his handling of the Cooks situation is Exhibit A in why that is. Smith isn’t about to let this situation get out of hand, so until Cooks shows that he has been fully acclimated back into this offense, do not put him into starting lineups. His subpar production levels also make him droppable in many league formats.

Is it time to bench every Colts player?

The Indianapolis offense is so bad that Colts beat reporter Zak Keefer said, “The line can’t identify blitzers, can’t pick up stunts, can’t get any push in the run game and can’t protect long enough to attempt anything vertical. The tight ends can’t stop dropping the ball. And the quarterback — in his second career start — can’t make decisions fast enough, which, to be fair, is more damning a reflection on those who chose to play him than Sam Ehlinger himself.”

Fantasy managers saw the statistical train wreck that this performance caused, as no Colts fantasy player tallied as many as seven points in the embarrassing 26-3 loss to the Patriots.

The kneejerk reaction might be to just bench or drop every Indianapolis player on a roster, but before doing that, note that the Week 10 matchup is against the Raiders. Las Vegas is dead last in the league in points allowed per drive since Week 5 and thus could be just what the Colts need to turn things around. Michael Pittman should be at least a flex start in that matchup and either Jonathan Taylor or Deon Jackson could rate as a RB2/flex candidate, so be sure to factor that in when making any decisions about Colts players this week.

Should fantasy managers trade high on Christian Kirk?

It’s tempting to do that, as Kirk’s 21.6-point performance against the Raiders was his second highest point total of the season, but before considering making a deal, note that Kirk has the Baltimore and Detroit defenses coming up in Weeks 12 and 13. Those secondaries have been hit or miss of late and they both provide Kirk with green-rated matchups under the current grades.

This means if you are going to trade Kirk away, be sure to get commensurate value, as there are many reasons to consider him a player worth keeping and not just a one-and-done trade commodity.

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Is it time to throw in the towel on the Chiefs running backs?

It might seem like that given that Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco combined for a total of 4.1 points against Tennessee on Sunday night but do take this into consideration. The Titans allowed only 5.0 points per game on rush plays in Weeks 5-8, a total that was easily the best in the league in that span, as second place in that category was Minnesota at 9.6 points. This means the Titans overpowering rush defense was more the cause of the subpar numbers than poor performance by CEH or Pacheco.

Also keep in mind that Kansas City has four green-rated rush defenses on its schedule from Weeks 11-16. This means Edwards-Helaire and/or Pacheco could have solid flex value or higher down the stretch, so don’t drop them or trade low if you have them and do accept a trade low offer for them or pick them up on waivers if possible.

Las Vegas Raiders

How concerned should fantasy managers be about Josh Jacobs production decline?

The Raiders know that Jacobs is probably leaving after this season and have been taking the rental car approach to his workload. This is why Jacobs came into Week 9 on pace to post a career high 347 scrimmage plays. That pace didn’t change against the Jaguars, as Jacobs had 20 touches in that matchup, but the wear and tear seems to be finally catching up to him, as he has tallied only 19.1 points over the past two weeks combined after posting 30+ points in each of the three games before this.

This combination makes it difficult to project a return to impact form for Jacobs, as Las Vegas already had its bye week and thus rest will be tough to come by, but the Raiders do have three green-rated rush defenses on the slate in Weeks 10-13. That means Jacobs has upside potential given his workload level, so plan on keeping him in lineups at least until then. His value will likely drop in Weeks 14-15, as the Raiders have a Thursday night matchup against the Rams in Week 14 and a tough battle against the Patriots in Week 15, so he could make for a late trade high candidate headed into the fantasy playoffs.

Can Joshua Palmer be trusted in lineups once Keenan Allen returns?

Palmer has posted 13+ points on four occasions this year and his 18.6 points against Atlanta in Week 9 was his highest point total of the season.

That latter factor is key since the Falcons rated as a highly favorable coverage matchup. Palmer has three green-rated matchups between now and Week 14 and Mike Williams may not be back for a few more weeks, so Palmer is apt to be a solid flex candidate in most weeks, at least until Williams returns.

Los Angeles Rams

Can all Rams running backs be dropped?

There are so many advanced metrics that one could use to illustrate just how awful the Rams rushing offense has been, but this one may work best. Per TruMedia, since Week 5, Los Angeles has posted a successful expected points added on a run play only 18.6 percent of the time. That is by far the lowest in the league, the NFL average in that span is 39.8 percent and the next worst team, New England, has a 28.5 percent success rate.

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This is one of many reasons Sean McVay knows he can’t lean on his run game, and it is also why fantasy managers can’t rely on Darrell Henderson or Cam Akers. One might be tempted to keep Henderson or Akers with the hope that four green-rated rush defenses remaining on the Rams fantasy football schedule will provide some upside potential, but when things are this bad the schedule likely won’t make these two start candidates, so feel free to drop both of them.

What did Jeff Wilson Jr. do to Raheem Mostert’s fantasy value?

It’s tough for a new player to get up to speed in Mike McDaniel’s complex offense because McDaniel uses all manner of nuances to get defensive players where he wants them to go.

Wilson is an obvious exception to that learning curve rule, as he worked in the McDaniel system in San Francisco. This prowess showed up in the snap counts for Wilson and Raheem Mostert in Week 9.

This has turned into a pure platoon setup that will make Wilson and Mostert flex or RB2 candidates in most weeks. Since Miami has four green-rated rush defense matchups between now and Week 16, it will be RB2-caliber value more often than it will be flex value.

Minnesota Vikings

Can Kirk Cousins be trusted in three upcoming tough matchups?

Cousins has been a go-to fantasy starter over the past five weeks, as his 19.7 points per game pace since Week 5 ranks seventh among quarterbacks.

That trend will cause many fantasy managers to consider Cousins a solid start candidate from here on out, but the schedule presents more than a few roadblocks. The Vikings visit Buffalo in Week 10 and then have a three-game home stretch versus Dallas, New England, and the New York Jets. Facing the Bills on the road is a recipe for finding another starter, and the Cowboys, Patriots, and Jets all rank in the top 11 in fantasy pass points allowed per game since Week 5, with the Patriots and Jets ranking third and second, respectively, in that category.

This means Cousins is apt to be a low-end QB1 during this span and possibly outside the QB1 tier on one more occasions. His fantasy managers should plan accordingly and have quality backup candidates for these games.

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New England Patriots

Is Damien Harris a drop candidate with New England on a bye in Week 10?

It might seem so, as Harris has posted only 11.4 points since Week 5 and missed the Week 9 matchup against the Colts due to an illness.

This lack of production has Harris on the drop consideration list but take this into account before making that move. Rhamondre Stevenson has tallied 164 scrimmage plays this season. That is already higher than the 147 scrimmage plays he posted in his rookie year in 2021 and is nearly as much as he posted in his two-year career at Oklahoma when he posted 193 touches.

It is entirely possible that Stevenson can hold up to this high workload volume, but being that he is unproven here, and being that Bill Belichick is known for going with platoon or committee approaches if the top back shows wear and tear, it is very likely that Harris will have late season value. Keep him if you can, as he is apt to return to his early season impact form sometime between now and the end of the fantasy season.

New Orleans Saints

Will be updated following the Monday night game.

Team on a bye this week.

New York Jets

What did Week 9 tell fantasy managers about James Robinson’s role in the Jets offense?

Robinson’s fantasy managers had some concerns about putting him into lineups this week, as he was placed on the injury report on Saturday night with a knee issue.

That issue did nothing to slow down his workload rate, as evidenced by the Jets Week 9 running back snap counts.

Robinson and Carter had a near even split on the rush snaps, with Carter having more of an edge on pass snaps, but also spending three of those pass blocking (versus zero pass blocking snaps for Robinson). More importantly, Robinson vaulted Ty Johnson in every snap count category, something that was not the case in Week 8 and led to Robinson posting only 1.7 points.

This platoon trend indicates that Robinson is now up to full speed in this offense and can be trusted in starting lineups.

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Philadelphia Eagles

It is time for fantasy managers to worry about starting DeVonta Smith?

Let’s start by looking at what is causing Smith’s production decline. Check out his points per game totals on short and vertical passes in Weeks 1-7 versus his production at those depth levels in Weeks 8 and 9.

Weeks 1-7

Short: 10.0 PPG

Vertical: 4.2 PPG

Weeks 8-9

Short: 4.2 PPG

Vertical: 1.6 PPG

The vertical drop-off doesn’t help matters, but the big issue is on short passes, as Smith has seen a decline of 5.8 points per game at that depth level.

Part of that is due to Dallas Goedert racking up 10.6 points per game on short passes in Weeks 8-9. That is notable because the Eagles have red-rated tight end coverage defenses coming up in each of the next four games.

This should result in fewer short passes headed Goedert’s way and that should help Smith get back to his earlier production pace. Feel safe putting him into lineups in the next few weeks.

Team on a bye this week.

Team on a bye this week.

Can Kenneth Walker III hold up to his current workload pace?

The Seahawks are asking Walker to shoulder quite a burden of late, as he has racked up 96 scrimmage plays over the past four weeks. Pro-rate that 24 plays per game pace over eight more games and add it equals 192 more touches. Add that to the 127 plays he had already racked up this year and it equals 319 scrimmage plays for the season.

That is a challenging volume for most backs, but Walker posted 276 scrimmage plays for the Michigan State Spartans last year, so it looks like this pace is within his durability profile. It also helps that Seattle will be on a bye in Week 11 that will give Walker some down time before making that stretch run.

Should Cade Otton be rostered in a lot more leagues?

Otton is now starting to post double-digit point totals at a fairly consistent pace, as he is one of only nine tight ends to tally 10+ points at least three times since Week 4. Tampa Bay is on a bye in Week 11 and has back-to-back red-rated tight end coverage matchups following that, so Otton might not be a weekly start candidate from here on out but given his current production pace he can still make for solid spot start option in many weeks.

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Tennessee Titans

Are there any viable fantasy options on this team outside of Derrick Henry?

The Titans know exactly who they are and what type of team they want to be. This dedication to smashmouth football leads to wins and helps Henry rack up 20+ points more often than not, but it really does limit the value of most other players on this roster.

Ryan Tannehill could be a potential roster candidate since he started the year with 18+ points in two of the first three games, but with matchups coming up against Denver in Week 10, Green Bay in Week 11, and Philadelphia in Week 13, Tannehill doesn’t look like a quality start candidate in the near future.

Robert Woods is the only player worth consideration, but Woods has seen only eight targets over the past three weeks and has five catches for 52 yards and 8.2 fantasy points in that time frame. Barring a major change to the Titans game plan, Woods can’t be justified on fantasy rosters and can be dropped from the vast majority of the 58.5 percent of leagues he is still rostered in.

Can Antonio Gibson or Brian Robinson be trusted in fantasy lineups?

Gibson and Robinson have been operating in a platoon environment since Robinson’s Week 5 return. That setup doesn’t preclude solid fantasy value and they each have posted two games with 10+ points in that span, but the 12.5 points they combined for in Week 9 shows that this system isn’t working as either Washington’s coaches or fantasy managers would have hoped for.

The issue is a lack of red zone and goal line production. Since Week 5, the Commanders rank tied for next to last in number of red zone drives per game and 23rd in percentage of red zone drives that result in a touchdown.

This has led to very few opportunities for Washington running backs on plays at or inside the 5-yard line in that time frame.

These snaps netted two targets and no completions to McKissic, zero targets for Gibson, and two rushes for zero yards and a touchdown for Robinson.

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It’s very tough to make a fantasy impact with that volume of impact chances, and with Washington’s next two games being against tough Philadelphia and Houston defenses, it’s going to be a close call as to whether or not to trust Gibson or Robinson in lineups.

(Top photo: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

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